Market Analysis and Earnings Forecast - Week of May 11

earnings Market Analysis

Potential Earnings Plays for the Week (By K.O.)
Eventbrite (EB)- makes its money by taking a % whenever a ticket is sold, bracing for no events revenue for the quarter?
>could be a good short for a day
HERTZ- seems to be at a bottom but filed for bankruptcy
AMC- if further postponing or threat of bankruptcy, could be a short 5/14
WIX- on 5/14 before open, already run up alot, would prob run up a bit more prior to earnings
Cardinal Health- may run up before earnings since its a little shy from ATH it made recently not too long ago. largest medial equipment/gown distributer
unfortunately earnings is before the bell but may continue the run up for the next couple of days riding on earnings.
JD com earnings 5/15- competitor to BABA, could give insight on BABA earnings on 5/22

prospects:

NCLH- bankruptcy possibility still remains, any significant movement to the downside id short
Airline stocks- for continuation bull run

NEXT NEXT week earnings plays running up the week before:

SOHU- "Media Portal and video businesses; the 2019 -- for Media Portal business we are committed to strengthening our brand influence, by generating integrating and distributing news and premium content, while continuing with -- we continue to attract the focus on hot events."

Essentials Retailers

WMT-walmart 5/19 before bell- has room to run up for the week before earnings wanring: ecom sales only account for 10% of walmart revenue
BJs- 5/21 before bell

Home Improvement

Home Depot- home improvement sales actually rise during the pandemic- dont see a play here, priced in it seems
LOW stock- 5/20 Lowes before bell/ seems priced in

Clothing Retailers:

RL- 5/22 before bell Ralph Lauren- still hasnt recovered, not that far from all time lows. could rise in Earnings anticipations, a lot of revenue comes from retail and whole sale
URBN- 5/22 after belle urban outfitters, another retailer but with a strong online presence, ecom sales consisting of more than 40% in mid 2018
JCP- 5/19 would not touch because of bankruptcy but relief rally?
KOHLS- 5/20 before bell seems like retails stores were hit pretty hard, bad earnings expected
considering how macys delayed their earnings and JC penney became bankrupt
online sales is 25% for KOHLs
NORDSTORM- 5/20 after bell, 34% of sales are online so a little bit better/ honestly seems like a SAFE play climbing next week into earnings
Footlocker- 5/21 before bell also one of the retailers but seems like online sales are not a significant portion of revenue

Cruiselines

RCL- earnings on 5/20 before bell could be some positive outlook on the cruise industry?
NCLH- 5/22 before bell/ wouldnt touch this could be bankruptcy news?


Online Trip Websites/event planning

Expedia- 5/20 after bell 70% of revenue comes from hotels https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080315/how-expedia-makes-money.asp
seeing how Trip Advisors performed, Expedia seems to bee a good short for incoming earnings
Groupon- worth a look

Electronics

BBY - 5/21 before bell/ online sales account for 25% of all revenue
GPU Chip
NVDA- 5/21 after bell very close to all time highs 3/14

Tankers

NAT-5/18 before bell could be really interesting play, but stock already climbed on need for oil storage and is falling, but would investors try to play earnings? CEO said it was doing very well because of need for oil storage
TNK- 5/21 before bell >> second tankers stock, can play this after NAT earnings come out and we see how it was impacted

Chinese Ecommerce Wholesalers/Retail

BABA- 5/22 before bell could have info from JD earnings
PDD- 5/22 before bell
pinduoduo biggest ecom player behind JD and Alibaba, seems like its growing fast and good earnings good expedite that, currently at ATHs
100% of revenue is from commissions of bulk sales/ business model is bulk buying to reduce cost of items/ consumer base however is more price conscious consumers and the crisis may have an effect (45% from tier 1 and 2 cities, 55% from tier 3)
currently has same markket cap as jd com

Gaming

GRVY- similar to blizzard but with much smaller market cap, could rally before earnings like blizzard (Ragnorak online lul)
eyes on Ebay- for potential short? its been consistently rising for the past month

Further out plays:

Costco 5/28 earnings report- seems like a sure climb towards the earnings, since its an essential business with sales likely to have been driven up by the epidemic and the panic need to stock up on essential supplies and 20% of its revenue is online
> not to mention costco has barely moved up


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